An outreach analysis

Where the bonds failed, and why the data was always on their side.

Fifty-six K-12 school districts whose bond, levy, override, or VATRE measures failed between May 2024 and November 2025. For each, what the federal data shows — and what the campaign should have said.

56
Districts in cohort
39
Spend less than national median on plant ops
13
Spend 30%+ below median
9/56
Have ≥1 FMX-customer peer
17
Total FMX-customer peer matches
§1 · The signature finding

Almost every district spends less on facilities than the rest of the country.

The chart plots all 56 districts against the U.S. plant-operations median of $1,324 per pupil. The cluster left of the line is the under-investment story — the bond-justification number that almost no campaign cited. Click any dot to open the district's brief.

Each dot is a district. Hover for details · click to open brief.
Tier A · Razor margins Tier B · Strong fit Tier C · Strategic Tier D · Special cases Tier A with FMX peers
$500$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000PLANT OPERATIONS $ PER PUPIL → NATIONAL MEDIAN $1,324
"We spend $785 per student on plant operations. The national median is $1,324. Our peers average $813. We are the least-funded facility-maintenance district in our peer group, by every dollar." — What Bryan County Schools could have told voters (lost by 35 votes)
§2 · By the district

All 56, sortable.

Tier A: razor-thin margins with active re-attempts (highest leverage). Tier B: strong FMX fit, named operations contacts, repeating-failure cadence. Tier C: structural — community-trust collapse, supermajority barrier, board overriding voters. Tier D: special cases (winners, brand-new districts).

Tier:
FMX peers:
Showing 56 of 56
District Tier · Margin Vote margin Plant ops vs nat'l FMX peers Lead FMX peer
Bryan County Schools GA · Bryan · enr 10,677 Tier A Failed by 35 votes -41% 3 Fairfield City (OH)
Jefferson Parish Schools LA · Jefferson · enr 46,790 Tier A Failed 17,917-17,598 (319 votes) -11% 2 HUMBLE ISD (TX)
East Valley School District (Spokane) WA · Spokane · enr 3,601 Tier A 54.6% Yes (needed 60%) +13% 3 Plum Borough SD (PA)
Eastmont School District WA · Douglas · enr 5,930 Tier A 59.49% Yes (needed 60%) -31% 2 Forest Grove SD 15 (OR)
Little Axe Public Schools OK · Cleveland · enr 1,138 Tier A ~51% Yes (failed 60% threshold) -28% 2 MONITEAU CO. R-I (MO)
Weatherford Public Schools OK · Custer · enr 2,404 Tier A Prop 1 63.5% No; Prop 2 50.45% (failed 60% threshold) -33% 2 MARSHALL (MO)
Mahopac Central School District NY · Putnam · enr 3,863 Tier A Failed 1,200-1,223 (budget also failed) +68% 1 Radnor Township SD (PA)
East Central ISD TX · Bexar · enr 11,497 Tier A All 4 failed -23% 1 Pender County Schools (NC)
St. Joseph Public Schools MI · Berrien · enr 2,930 Tier A Failed -17% 1 Marysville Public Schools (MI)
Hood Canal School District WA · Mason · enr 337 Tier A Failed (needed 60%) +18%
Saginaw Township Community Schools MI · Saginaw · enr 4,548 Tier B 62% No / 38% Yes -41%
North Olmsted City Schools OH · Cuyahoga · enr 3,539 Tier B Failed -15%
Frisco ISD TX · Collin/Denton · enr 65,289 Tier B All 4 failed (Prop B ~52% No) -44%
Mansfield ISD TX · Tarrant/Johnson · enr 35,354 Tier B C/D/E failed (<50%) -16%
Northwest ISD TX · Denton/Tarrant/Wise · enr 32,098 Tier B Failed -26%
Spring ISD TX · Harris · enr 33,590 Tier B Failed -15%
Cleburne ISD TX · Johnson · enr 6,877 Tier B Both failed -10%
Bridgeport ISD TX · Wise · enr 2,133 Tier B 55% No / 45% Yes +5%
Willis ISD TX · Montgomery · enr 9,313 Tier B All failed (~54% No) -21%
Lake Orion Community Schools MI · Oakland · enr 6,589 Tier B 50.32% No / 49.68% Yes -36%
Plainwell Community Schools MI · Allegan · enr 2,634 Tier B ~53% No / 47% Yes -19%
Birch Run Area Schools MI · Saginaw · enr 1,806 Tier B ~54% No / 46% Yes -40%
Lake Fenton Community Schools MI · Genesee · enr 2,013 Tier B Failed -30%
Vermilion Local Schools OH · Erie/Lorain · enr 1,602 Tier B Failed (2nd try) -12%
Streetsboro City Schools OH · Portage · enr 1,905 Tier B Failed -14%
Elyria City Schools OH · Lorain · enr 5,702 Tier B Failed (no new levy since 2010) -17%
Amherst Exempted Village Schools OH · Lorain · enr 3,533 Tier B Failed -24%
Madison Local Schools (Richland County) OH · Richland · enr 2,626 Tier B Failed -12%
Adams 12 Five Star Schools CO · Adams · enr 34,466 Tier B 43% Yes / 57% No -9%
Deer Valley Unified AZ · Maricopa · enr 32,265 Tier B 46% Yes / 54% No -26%
Gilbert Public Schools AZ · Maricopa · enr 31,560 Tier B 46% Yes / 53% No -37%
Saugus Union School District CA · Los Angeles · enr 9,191 Tier B 49% Yes / 51% No (needed 55%) -23%
North Kitsap School District WA · Kitsap · enr 5,330 Tier B 36% Yes / 64% No (needed 60%) +15%
Battle Ground Public Schools WA · Clark · enr 12,754 Tier B 46.92% Yes (needed 60%) -2%
School District of Baraboo WI · Sauk · enr 2,598 Tier B 54% No / 46% Yes -16%
School District of Beloit WI · Rock · enr 4,958 Tier B 50.8% No / 49.2% Yes (3rd straight fail) +14%
Burlington Public Schools MA · Middlesex · enr 3,510 Tier B 31.5% Yes / 68.5% No +46%
Stoneham Public Schools MA · Middlesex · enr 2,338 Tier B 45.5% Yes / 53.6% No +60%
Wayne Township Public Schools NJ · Passaic · enr 7,653 Tier B Failed (2x in 2024) +71%
Greenwich Township School District NJ · Warren · enr 607 Tier B 37% Yes / 63% No -0%
Collingswood Public School District NJ · · enr 2,207 Tier B +38%
Middle Township Public Schools NJ · Cape May · enr 2,658 Tier B 34% Yes / 66% No +44%
Becton Regional HS District NJ · Bergen · enr 889 Tier B 32% Yes / 68% No +66%
Lancaster County School District SC · Lancaster · enr 15,417 Tier B Failed -25%
Houston ISD TX · Harris · enr 176,727 Tier C ~58% No on both -14%
Chester County School District SC · Chester · enr 4,523 Tier C Failed (4th consecutive) -10%
Three Rivers/Josephine County SD OR · · enr 4,442 Tier C +11%
Shamong Township School District NJ · Burlington · enr 644 Tier C ~25% Yes / 75% No +78%
Shelley Joint School District #60 ID · Bingham · enr 2,512 Tier C 38% Yes (needed 66.67%) -55%
Belgrade School District #44 MT · Gallatin · enr 2,269 Tier C Failed (rejected by 2,722) -23%
Central School District 13J OR · Polk · enr 3,054 Tier C ~43% Yes / 57% No -34%
Thompson School District R-2J CO · Larimer · enr 14,580 Tier C Failed +138%
North Summit School District UT · Summit · enr 1,073 Tier C ~44% Yes / 56% No -33%
Arrowhead Union HS District WI · · enr 1,950 Tier C +19%
Wickliffe City School District OH · Lake · enr 1,228 Tier D Failed -78%
Regional School District 20 CT · Litchfield · enr 1,619 Tier D Both failed