Bryan County Schools — GA

1. Snapshot

Suburb-Large K-12, 10,677 students across 10 schools in coastal Georgia just south of Savannah. SAIPE poverty 8.0%. Demographics 60% White / 14% Black / 12% Hispanic / 8% Multiracial / 4% Asian. Per-pupil expenditure $12,582 (FY2020). This district is in the middle of the fastest enrollment growth in Georgia — the Richmond Hill area on the south end of the county is exploding (Hyundai’s $7.6B EV plant nearby is the demand driver) while the Pembroke side in the north remains rural and lower-income. The bond was framed around that growth: a new HS, new elementaries, and an aquatic center to handle the inbound students.

2. Why this was a hard sell — community context (ACS)

The community profile is favorable for a bond — $90K HHI, 76% owner-occupied, 8.8% non-English household share (campaign messaging reach is easy). The wealth profile can absorb $320M. Two structural problems:

1. Pembroke ≠ Richmond Hill. Bryan County is geographically large and politically split. Pembroke (the north, county-seat side, lower-income — Bryan County High at 65% FRL) and Richmond Hill (the south, higher-income, exploding growth — Richmond Hill High at 26% FRL) have very different views on whether to fund a Hyundai-area aquatic center. The bond bundled both sides’ needs into one ballot and asked them to vote together.
2. Property tax exposure is heavy in a county where home values are below the national median ($276K vs $340K). A $320M bond on a 10,677-student district = ~$30K per student of new debt. At $276K home value and ~1% effective property tax bump, that’s $200-400/year per household — meaningful in a county where median HHI is $90K but ~25% of households earn under $50K.

The 35-vote margin says this is a fundamentally flippable district. A small data improvement on the next ask plausibly changes the outcome. This is the most leverage on the list per dollar of FMX engagement.

3. Peer comparison

Top-10 peers via MCP (default weights + 0.20 plantOps emphasis). FMX-customer status now resolved against opted-in local benchmarking server.

Confirmed FMX customers in top 15 (3): Fairfield City (OH), Greater Clark County Schools (IN), L’Anse Creuse Public Schools (MI).

4. The gap story (what the data would have shown voters)

Bryan County’s data position is strong for a bond pitch and was almost certainly underused:

• Plant operations spending: $785 / pupil vs national median $1,324 — 41% below national. Identical to Saginaw Township’s signature number in the MI pilot. Peer-set median is $813/pp — Bryan County is right at peer-bottom. This is the single most defensible argument: we under-invest in facility upkeep relative to every peer and against the national median.
• Per-pupil instruction: $6,214 — lowest in the peer set ($5,817-$7,653). Bryan spends less on instruction than every peer compared. That’s the real case for the bond: not “we need a new pool,” but “we underspend on every category and we’re trying to catch up before the Hyundai-driven enrollment surge swamps us.”
• Capital construction outlay (FY2020): $10,349,000. Already actively investing — not a deferred-maintenance district at the headline level, but the per-pupil and per-square-foot intensity tells a different story.
• Counselor ratio 533:1 — highest in the peer set (peer median 384:1). Bryan County High at 261:1 (small, rural school) but Richmond Hill HS at 445:1, Richmond Hill MS at 506:1, McAllister Elementary at 1,051:1 (yes, one counselor for the entire elementary school).
• Nurse coverage: 9 of 10 schools have a nurse — Bryan County High School (Pembroke side) is the one without. That’s a specific, named, ballot-shaped gap.
• Chronic absenteeism 11.1%, suspension 12.9% — both below or at peer median. School climate is better than the data-similar peer set. But two schools stand out: Bryan County High at 24.5% chronic absenteeism and 44.8% suspension rate; Bryan County Middle at 20.9%/42.3%. Both are the Pembroke-side (lower-income, rural) schools. These are the buildings whose conditions and staffing the bond should have specifically named.
• Total expulsions: 50 — highest in peer set. Concentrated in BCHS (16) and BCMS (6) on the Pembroke side; Richmond Hill HS had 22 across a 2,671-student building. Discipline patterns differ wildly between the two sides of the county.

The bond materials emphasized the aquatic center and growth-driven new construction — i.e., the Richmond Hill side’s needs. The strongest argument for the bond was the Pembroke side’s under-investment story, which the data supports and the campaign didn’t lead with.

FMX peer operational benchmarks (live)

Pulled live from fmxFacilities for each confirmed FMX-customer peer above. These are the actual operational profiles Bryan County Schools is being measured against — and what the next campaign can cite directly.

Most peers above have partial snapshots — they’re FMX customers but several operational fields (sqft, cost-per-sqft, portfolio age) haven’t been backfilled yet. The presence of FMX-customer peers at high similarity is still the load-bearing outreach signal: comparable districts are on the platform; the FMX team should validate whether their data layer is mature enough to cite.

5. Bond history (Ballotpedia + news)

Per WTOC and Bryan County News: - Mar 18, 2025: $200M GO bond + $120M ESPLOST extension, failed by 35 votes. - May 19, 2025: Bond + ESPLOST re-submitted (per search results in Bryan County News). Outcome not in pilot data — the FMX team should validate whether the May 2025 re-attempt passed. - Prior history: Bryan has run ESPLOSTs before. ESPLOST is a renewal mechanism — voters are accustomed to voting on the 1¢ sales tax every 5 years. The novelty in 2025 was the $200M GO bond piggybacked on top of the routine ESPLOST renewal.

The 35-vote margin (out of likely 8,000–12,000 ballots cast based on Bryan turnout patterns) is the number. A swing of 18 votes flips the outcome. With ~270 days of growth-driven enrollment and turnout shifts between March and a future re-attempt, this is winnable on data alone if the campaign improves.

6. What voters / opposition actually said

WTOC coverage notes residents “chose to reject the tax measure” without identifying specific opposition. No organized opposition committee surfaces in coverage. Likely operative factors:

• The aquatic center was the most-quoted line item in pre-vote coverage and likely the political flashpoint — voters in Pembroke see the aquatic center as a Richmond Hill amenity that they’re being asked to subsidize.
• Bond + ESPLOST combined is unusual. ESPLOST renewals usually pass routinely (Georgia voters are familiar with the structure). Combining it with a $200M GO bond muddied the messaging — voters didn’t know if they were voting on the routine renewal or the new debt.
• Hyundai-area growth as justification is double-edged: it’s real growth (the demand is undeniable), but it also signals “Hyundai is coming and you taxpayers are paying for it before the new tax base arrives.” That’s exactly the dynamic that loses bonds in growth-corridor districts.

7. What we could have told them

1. **”We spend $785/student on plant operations. The national median is $1,324. Our peers average $813. We are the least-funded facility-maintenance district in our peer group, by every dollar.” ** Single most defensible bond-justifying number, exactly parallel to Saginaw’s signature stat.
2. “Bryan County High School — the Pembroke-side high school — has 24.5% chronic absenteeism, 44.8% suspension, and no nurse. Those are conditions, not asks. The bond addresses them.” Specifically names a Pembroke-side school — addresses the inter-municipal fairness problem head-on.
3. “Counselor ratio: 533 students per counselor district-wide. McAllister Elementary: 1,051 students per counselor. Catoosa County (our same-state peer): 375:1. We are 42% worse than the GA peer.” State peer comparison is the most credible benchmark to a Bryan County voter — Catoosa, not Indiana or Ohio, is what they’ll find relatable.
4. Decouple the bond from the ESPLOST renewal. Two separate votes. ESPLOST renewal passes routinely; the GO bond stands or falls on its own merits and doesn’t drag down the routine.
5. Drop the aquatic center, or make it Prop B. Aquatic centers lose votes in 8-of-10 rural-South bond elections. If it’s genuinely needed, make it a separate ballot question voters can reject without sinking the school construction.

8. FMX outreach hook

Bryan County Schools now has 3 confirmed FMX-customer peers in the top 15 peer set. The outreach team has live proof points — these are not “likely customers, validate later,” they are named, opted-in, and their operational data is queryable today:

• Fairfield City (OH, 525 mi, enrollment 9,591, 93% similarity) (fairfieldcityschools-local.gofmx.com): work-order resolution 97.3%; HVAC is 4.5% of work orders; 18 buildings tracked.
• Greater Clark County Schools (IN, 488 mi, enrollment 10,645, 93% similarity) (gccschools.gofmx.com): work-order resolution 96.5%; HVAC is 7.4% of work orders; 24 buildings tracked.
• L’Anse Creuse Public Schools (MI, 726 mi, enrollment 9,215, 92% similarity) (lc-ps.gofmx.com): work-order resolution 92.2%; HVAC is 5.0% of work orders; 25 buildings tracked.

Opener for the call: “Your top-similarity peers include Fairfield City (OH) and Greater Clark County Schools (IN) — both already running FMX. They publish work-order resolution rates, HVAC burden, and per-building cost data your bond campaign couldn’t cite. We can have your portfolio benchmarked against them inside 60 days, in time for your next ballot ask.”

Lead the call against the contact named in the spreadsheet (Director of Operations / CFO / Superintendent as applicable). Validate the named FMX peers above against the internal customer list before outbound — these were resolved via the MCP unredacted endpoint on the local server.