School District of Baraboo — WI
1. Snapshot
Town-Distant district in Sauk County, WI. 2,598 students across 9 schools (Baraboo HS, Jack Young MS, 5 elementaries, 2 PK centers). SAIPE poverty 9.1%, demographics 76% White / 12% Hispanic / 5% Multiracial / 3% Native American / 2% Black — modestly diverse for rural Wisconsin. Per-pupil expenditure $24,325 (FY2020). Districtwide capital outlay FY2020: $26.7M — the only district in this brief set with substantial recent capital investment, which makes the tax-neutral framing the bond materials leaned on directly defensible.
2. Why this was a hard sell — community context (ACS)
| Metric | Baraboo | National median (typical) |
|---|---|---|
| Median household income | $70,969 | ~$75K |
| Median home value | $214,100 | ~$340K |
| Bachelor’s+ | 26.0% | — |
| Owner-occupied | 70.5% | — |
| Gini index | 0.395 | Below-median inequality |
| Non-English household | 5.2% | English-dominant |
This is a modest-income, owner-heavy community with sub-$215K median home values — meaningfully below national. A “tax-neutral” framing (the new debt replaces retiring debt) should have neutralized cost objections, and yet still failed by 8 points. That’s a tell: voters either didn’t believe the tax-neutral math, or the rejection was about something other than tax impact — most likely the 4K full-day kindergarten program component, which Wisconsin towns have been historically skeptical of when bundled with capital asks. The campaign visibly bundled an expansion (4K) into a capital catch-up (elementary renovations), and lost the catch-up vote in the process.
3. Peer comparison
Top peers identified via MCP (default weights + plantOps emphasis):
| Peer district | State | Enrollment | Per-pupil | Plant ops/pp | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sauk Prairie School District | WI | 2,658 | $27,454 | $1,131 | Same county (Sauk), 13 mi south — closest possible peer |
| Winona Area Public Schools | MN | 2,465 | $18,065 | $1,050 | Town-Distant peer, lower per-pupil |
| Gloversville City SD | NY | 2,582 | $23,849 | $1,524 | Same enrollment band, much higher poverty (25%) |
| Dixon USD 170 | IL | 2,436 | $16,803 | $1,125 | Smaller, leaner |
| Athens City SD (Chauncey, OH) | OH | 2,267 | $27,002 | $1,188 | Town-Distant peer, similar spend |
| Reedsburg School District | WI | 2,591 | $15,688 | — | Same county, 13 mi — relevant tax-base context |
| 1 redacted “Peer District” entry (OH) | Likely FMX customer — outreach team to validate |
4. The gap story (what the data would have shown voters)
Baraboo’s facilities case is unusual: it spends near the peer median on plant ops and made real capital investment in FY2020. The bond was about a future gap, not a past one — and that’s a harder political pitch than catching up.
- Plant operations spending: $1,111.63 / pupil vs national median $1,324 — 16% below national, but very close to direct peers (Sauk Prairie $1,131, Winona $1,050, Dixon $1,125). Median plant ops across the top-5 peer set: $1,128/pupil. Baraboo is exactly at the peer median. There is no “we’re underspending vs peers” story to tell.
- Capital construction outlay (FY2020): $26.7M — substantial. Districts in this peer set do not show $26M years (most show $0–$3M). The bond wasn’t a catch-up ask; it was a continuation ask.
- Per-pupil instruction spending: $7,560 — the lowest in the peer set (peer median $9,355, range $7,508–$15,604). Sauk Prairie next door also runs lean at $7,508. Classroom dollars are being squeezed.
- Chronic absenteeism 24.4% — close to peer median (28.5%). Suspension 14.2% — above peer median (12.1%). Not the worst in the cluster but not the best either.
- Teacher certification 95.5% — the lowest in the peer set (peer median 100.1%, range 95.5%–101.6%). Every other district in the comparison runs at or above 100%. This is the single most defensible “people problem” data point in the district’s profile, and it never made the bond messaging.
- Zero security FTE at 6 of 9 schools (district total 2 FTE across 9 schools); 2 schools have no nurse at all. Peer set median: 1.7 security FTE. Building security framing would have worked.
- The high school suspension and law-enforcement referral rates (lawEnforcementReferralPct 3.8% — the highest in the peer set) suggest building climate at the HS is a credible bond justification that wasn’t surfaced in the elementary-focused materials.
5. Bond history (Ballotpedia + news)
- Nov 5, 2024: $85.7M capital referendum, 57% No / 43% Yes (6,541 vs 4,979)
- Apr 1, 2025: $69.9M capital referendum (this one), 54% No / 46% Yes (4,410 vs 3,743)
- Apr 7, 2026: $74M capital referendum, 53% No / 47% Yes — third attempt also failed
Three failures in 17 months, all for the same elementary work. Vote margin narrowed each time (57→54→53% No), but did not cross. The “scale down to pass” pattern matters here: ask dropped 19% from Nov 2024 to Apr 2025, then climbed back 6% from Apr 2025 to Apr 2026 — and the third ask still lost ground. That’s the diagnostic: it’s no longer about the size of the ask.
6. What voters / opposition actually said
WKOW’s April 2026 coverage carried no opposition quotes and no superintendent post-vote statement. The most surfaced voter sentiment came from Sauk County coverage of the Reedsburg and Sauk Prairie simultaneous referenda — Sauk Prairie passed a $68.4M capital + $3.2M operating combo while Baraboo failed at $69.9M. The neighboring district 13 miles away running essentially the same dollar amount and winning is the most damaging fact in the room. The Baraboo failure isn’t “the community doesn’t support schools.” It’s “the community doesn’t support this bond.”
7. What we could have told them
- “Sauk Prairie, 13 miles south, passed $68.4M capital + $3.2M operating in the same election. We’re asking for $69.9M as tax-neutral. The number is comparable, the answer should be too — what’s different is the messaging.” This is the single most uncomfortable peer comparison available, and it’s never been made publicly.
- “Our teacher certification rate is the lowest of any district in our peer comparison set — 95.5% vs a peer median of 100%. New buildings won’t fix certification, but failing buildings make it harder to attract and keep certified teachers.” Decouples building investment from instructional outcomes in a defensible way.
- “6 of our 9 schools have no security FTE on site. Across our 9 schools we have 2 nurses for 2,598 kids.” Specific, hard to argue against, peer-comparable.
- Strip the 4K full-day kindergarten expansion from the bond and pitch it as a separate operating-referendum question. Voters seem willing to fund the building but skeptical of bundled program expansion — three failures with 4K bundled is enough signal.
- For the next attempt (likely Nov 2026 or Apr 2027): re-pitch the HS building-climate story (lawEnforcementReferralPct 3.8% — peer-set highest; suspension 22% at the HS) alongside the elementary work. Right now the bond is framed as elementary-only; the district’s strongest behavioral-data argument lives in the high school.
8. FMX outreach hook
Baraboo is an interesting fit: three failed referenda in 17 months means a district leadership team that knows the data they’re using isn’t working. The next attempt — whenever it lands — will need defensible per-building condition scores and a published 5-year capital plan that doesn’t read like a wishlist. Lead with Yvette Updike (Director of Business Services): she’s the named CFO equivalent and would be the one defending tax-neutral math on the fourth attempt. Opener: “Sauk Prairie’s $68.4M capital passed in the same election yours failed. The most actionable difference between a district that passes and one that doesn’t is whether the per-building condition data lives somewhere voters can scrutinize. We can have your full portfolio benchmarked against Sauk Prairie and 4 other Wisconsin peers (including a likely-FMX-customer district in Ohio) in 60 days — in time for whatever comes next on the spring 2027 ballot.” The Sauk Prairie comparison is the lever; the FMX peer match in the redacted OH entry is the credibility hook.