Battle Ground Public Schools — WA

1. Snapshot

The largest WA district in the cohort — Suburb-Large covering Battle Ground, Brush Prairie, Yacolt, Amboy, parts of Vancouver in Clark County. 12,754 students across 21 schools. SAIPE poverty 6.2% — among the lowest in the cohort. Demographics 76% White / 12% Hispanic / 6% Multiracial / 3% Asian. Per-pupil expenditure $15,176 — below the WA peer median. Median household income $104,682 — the highest in the WA cohort and one of the most affluent districts in the failed-bond list nationally. This is the bond-cohort’s most-affluent-but-still-failed-with-46% case — a genuine opposition story, not a supermajority near-miss.

2. Why this was a hard sell — community context (ACS)

This is a community with substantial tax capacity — $100K+ median income, $485K median home, 80% homeownership. At only 46.92% Yes, BGPS got the kind of result that doesn’t show up just from “tax fatigue.” This is the closest thing in the WA cohort to a North-Kitsap-style community rejection — except instead of 36% Yes, BGPS got 46.92%, which is genuine opposition but not a wipeout. The diagnosis here is different from East Valley or Eastmont: voters in Battle Ground have the capacity to pay; many of them said no anyway.

3. Peer comparison

Top peers identified via MCP (default weights + plantOps emphasis):

4. The gap story (what the data would have shown voters)

BGPS’s data is the most counterintuitive in the WA cohort — the operations data argues against a bond, even though buildings clearly need investment:

• Plant operations spending: $1,292.71 / pupil vs national median $1,324 — essentially at the national median. Not a “we’ve been starving the buildings” story; not an “over-investing” story either. The plant-ops spend is unremarkable.
• Capital construction outlay (FY2020): $3.52M — material capital investment is already happening, distinguishing BGPS from East Valley ($633K) or Adams 12’s 5D-failure pattern. BGPS is not a district where the bond is the only capital lever.
• Per-pupil instruction $8,543.57 — below peer median ($7,512) but reflects BGPS being a low-spending WA district overall (below the WA peer per-pupil median of $17K).
• Chronic absenteeism: 23.0% district-wide — but with severe school-level variance: Daybreak Primary 44.5%, Prairie HS 40.7%, Daybreak Middle 36.8%, Laurin MS 36.8%. Four schools above 36% chronic absenteeism in a single district is unusual for a wealthy suburb. None of these schools were named in bond materials per coverage — and they should have been.
• Total expulsions district-wide: 254 — the highest in the WA cohort by an order of magnitude. Battle Ground HS alone: 127 expulsions. Coverage suggests a substantial discipline/safety narrative the bond didn’t fully use.
• Total nurse FTE: 6.37 across 21 schools — peer median 15.4 nurses. Despite per-pupil spending parity with peers, BGPS has fewer nurses per school than Ankeny IA, Hoover AL, Noblesville IN, Papillion NE.
• 18 of 21 schools have a nurse; 3 do not — the gap isn’t district-wide, it’s specific.
• Per-school FRL rates 33%–55% — wide variation across BGPS. The bond pitch that worked nationally for similar districts (Noblesville IN passed; BGPS’s peer of peers) leaned on equity-of-facility-condition. BGPS didn’t.

5. Bond history (Reflector + Columbian + BGPS)

• Feb 11, 2025: $87.75M bond, 46.92% Yes — failed
• Apr 2025 (replacement levy, not bond): also failed (per Columbian Apr 22-23 coverage) — 10,115 Yes vs 10,175 No, 60-vote margin
• Feb 10, 2026: BGPS ran the replacement levy again (per Columbian Nov 25, 2025) — separate measure, separate threshold (levies only need simple majority)

The bond is one of multiple failures in 12 months — bond + levy + repeat-levy. This is the WA cohort’s clearest “voters are saying no to this district overall” pattern, distinct from a single-bond failure. The 60-vote levy margin is much closer than the bond’s 46.92% — voters are differentiating between operating funds (close call) and new construction (clearer no).

6. What voters / opposition actually said

The Reflector and Columbian coverage focused on results without quoting opposition organizers. Superintendent Denny Waters’ Feb 2025 statement warned of up to $20M in cuts if the April levy also failed. No organized opposition coalition was named in coverage — which, paired with a 46.92% Yes (below the cohort’s near-miss districts), suggests disorganized but broad-based skepticism rather than a single opposition group.

The 12-month sequence of three failed measures (Feb 2025 bond → Apr 2025 levy → Feb 2026 levy re-run) is the strongest signal that the issue is district trust, not measure design. With 100K+ median household income and 80% homeownership, this isn’t a “can’t afford it” story.

7. What we could have told them

1. “Four schools above 36% chronic absenteeism — Daybreak Primary 44.5%, Daybreak Middle 36.8%, Prairie HS 40.7%, Laurin MS 36.8%. The bond materials didn’t name those schools. The bond materials should have named those schools.” Specific, verifiable, and pairs the educational case for the bond with the facility case.
2. “$1,293 per student goes to keeping these 21 buildings running — essentially at the national median. We’re not under-investing in maintenance and we’re not over-spending on it. The bond is for replacement and new capacity, not catching up on deferred work. That’s a different ask, and it needs a different number to anchor on.” Honest framing that defuses the easiest counterargument.
3. “254 expulsions district-wide last year, 127 at Battle Ground HS alone. The discipline data is the strongest case we have for the new elementary feeding into a different middle/high school path — but we didn’t tell that story.” Connects new construction to the district’s most-pressing operational problem.
4. “Noblesville IN — same enrollment band, same affluent-suburb peer, same low-poverty cohort — passes its bonds. They share the per-building condition score with voters. We share the dollar amount.” Direct national peer comparison voters can verify.
5. “6.37 nurses for 21 schools. Hoover AL: 23 nurses for 18 schools. Ankeny IA: 16.8 nurses for 18 schools. Three of our 21 schools have no nurse at all. The bond could include health-room space; that’s a tangible benefit voters can name.”

8. FMX outreach hook

BGPS is a community-rejection story with supermajority overhead — not a supermajority near-miss like Eastmont or East Valley. The 46.92% Yes plus the 60-vote-margin levy failure plus a Feb 2026 repeat says voters are differentiating between operating funds (close) and capital (clear no). The conversation isn’t “your campaign needs better data to convert a near-miss” — it’s “your district has a trust gap, and the bond is the first place that shows up.”

Best contact: Michelle Scott (CFO) or the incoming superintendent Shelly Whitten. The financial-trust narrative needs to start with the person making the financial case; Whitten’s clean slate is the moment to reset the data story.

Opener: “You ran a bond + two levies in 12 months and the bond got 46.92%. That’s not a supermajority barrier; that’s voters declining to give you more money. The April 2026 levy passed by 60 votes — voters are differentiating. What they’re not seeing is per-school condition data tied to outcomes. Four of your 21 schools have 36%+ chronic absenteeism, and none of those schools were named in the bond materials. Noblesville Indiana — same demographics, same locale, peer-of-peers — runs that exact narrative through FMX. Three of your top peer matches are likely FMX customers and we can confirm which ones.”

Three redacted “Peer District” entries (IN, PA × 2) in BGPS’s top-15 — outreach team should validate which is the most useful proof point. Noblesville IN is the named peer that’s most rhetorically useful even if it’s not the FMX customer; the FMX customer match is likely in the redacted PA cluster.