Vermilion Local Schools — OH
1. Snapshot
Suburb-Midsize district on Lake Erie spanning the Erie/Lorain county line. 1,602 students across 3 traditional schools (Vermilion HS, Sailorway MS, Vermilion ES) plus a digital academy. SAIPE poverty 10.9%. Demographics 88% White / 6% Hispanic / 6% Multiracial — homogeneous. Per-pupil expenditure $14,986 (FY2020).
2. Why this was a hard sell — community context (ACS)
| Metric | Vermilion | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Median household income | $69,905 | Modest |
| Median home value | $168,300 | Below state median |
| Bachelor’s+ | 27.6% | Notably low for a Suburb-Midsize |
| Owner-occupied | 76.4% | High |
| Gini index | 0.504 | Moderate inequality |
| Non-English household | 2.8% | Effectively English-monolingual community |
This is a high-homeowner, lower-college-attainment community with a sub-$170K median home value. A 4.08-mill, 30-year bond on a $168K home runs ~$240/year — not large in absolute terms, but for 30 years on a tax base of ~6,000 households. Bond opposition in Ohio communities like this routinely cites “fixed-income seniors” — a demographic that maps tightly to “owner-occupied, modest home value, low college attainment.”
3. Peer comparison
Top peers identified via MCP (default weights + plantOps emphasis):
| Peer district | State | Enrollment | Per-pupil | Plant ops/pp | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Point Local | OH | 1,343 | $14,970 | $1,206 | Same state, same locale, very close peer |
| Sparta Area Schools | MI | 2,371 | $19,381 | $1,038 | Town-Fringe peer |
| Yarmouth Schools | ME | 1,655 | $18,801 | $1,162 | Affluent comparison |
| Pelham School District | NH | 1,611 | $17,397 | $1,304 | Higher plant ops investment |
| Robinson CUSD 2 | IL | 1,537 | $15,163 | $1,141 | Similar size & spending |
| 3 redacted “Peer District” entries (MI, OH, PA) | Likely FMX customers |
4. The gap story (what the data would have shown voters)
Vermilion is close to the national median on facilities investment — but its educational outcomes are slipping, and the bond never tied the two together.
- Plant operations spending: $1,167.86 / pupil vs national median $1,324 — 12% below median. Mild under-investment, not severe.
- Capital construction outlay (FY2020): $0 — zero. Across an entire district for an entire year. This is the bond justification.
- Per-pupil instruction $7,871 — below Yarmouth ME ($12,054), Pelham NH ($9,794), South Point OH ($8,560). Compared to peers, classroom investment is also under-funded.
- State report card dropped from 4 → 3.5 stars (per Vermilion Daily). Specific category scores: Graduation 5★ (97%), Achievement 4★, Progress/Early Literacy 3★, College/Career/Workforce/Military Readiness 2★. The bond did not address what the report card flagged — readiness pipelines, not buildings.
- 21.9% chronic absenteeism, 18.6% suspension — both above peer medians. School climate is the unspoken second issue.
- HS suspension rate 12.6%, MS suspension rate 25.4% — middle school is the problem grade. Worth noting in any bond that touches Sailorway MS.
5. Bond history (Ballotpedia + news)
- May 2011: levy renewal (passed)
- May 2025: $47M bond, failed (first attempt of this cycle)
- Nov 2025: $47M bond, failed again (this one)
District is in a same-cycle, same-ask repeat-fail pattern. Same dollar amount, same purpose, twice in 6 months. Vote margin for May 2025 not reported in available coverage — would be a useful data point for outreach.
6. What voters / opposition actually said
Available coverage is thin — Ideastream lumped Vermilion into a paragraph about northeast-Ohio levy failures; Vermilion Daily focused on the report-card slip. No direct voter or opposition quotes surfaced. The absence of public debate is itself a finding: the district has not generated engagement — neither support nor visible opposition. Two failed asks with no public conversation suggests a campaign-communications void, not a contested community.
7. What we could have told them
- “We spent $0 on capital construction in our most recent fully-reported year. The bond is what stops that from being the new normal.” Single most visible data point in the entire district profile.
- “South Point Local, a peer Ohio district nearly identical to us, spends $1,206/student on plant operations — we spend $1,168. We’re not behind peers on facilities investment, but we’re not ahead either. The bond is to catch up on capital, not to keep up on operations.” Reframe the ask precisely.
- “Our college-and-career-readiness score is 2 stars. The bond renovates the middle school where suspensions are 25% — the grade where the readiness pipeline starts to break. New buildings won’t fix readiness alone, but failing buildings make it worse.” Ties bond to outcome.
- At $168K median home × 4.08 mills × 30 years × ~6,000 households = $50.4M nominal collection. Match the ask ($47M) to the collection arithmetic and show voters the math is tight, not padded.
- For the next attempt (likely May 2026): scale-down isn’t enough. Re-package as 2–3 ballot items: one for the MS rebuild, one for safety/security at the HS, one for ES capital. Lets voters say yes to part of the ask.
8. FMX outreach hook
Vermilion is a high-fit prospect: small enough that an FMX onboarding could be 90 days, with a CFO/Treasurer (Justin Klingshirn) and a Director of Operations (James Williamson) both named in the spreadsheet — clear two-person decision unit. Lead with Klingshirn: he’s the one who will have to justify the third attempt. Opener: “Two asks in six months, same dollar amount — the data your voters need is per-building condition scores and a 5-year capital plan they can scrutinize. South Point Local across the state already runs that playbook. We can have your facilities portfolio benchmarked against your closest peer (and 4 redacted ones) in 30 days, in time for a re-scoped May 2026 ask.” The OH Suburb-Midsize peer cluster is where the strongest proof points live.